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Q J Med 2003; 96: 235-238
© 2003 Association of Physicians

Commentary

The arithmetic of risk*

I.C. McManus

From the Department of Psychology, University College London, Gower Street, London, UK

The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below.

In John Lanchester's novel Mr Phillips, the hero, a newly redundant accountant, is taken hostage during a bank robbery. Lying face down on the ground, he passes the time rehearsing a conversation he'd had with his former colleagues about the statistics of the National Lottery. The chance of winning is about 1 in 14 million, which is much lower than the risk of dying before the week's lottery is drawn. The accountants wondered how close to the draw you would need to buy a ticket for the chance of winning to be greater than the risk of dying. The answer is about three and a half minutes.

The calculation is straightforward. Of the 50 million people in England, about half a million die each year, which is about 10 000 a week. The probability of dying during a typical week is therefore about 1:5000, or 3000 times higher than . . . [Full Text of this Article]


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