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QJM Advance Access originally published online on September 17, 2006
QJM 2006 99(10):665-671; doi:10.1093/qjmed/hcl090
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© The Author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Physicians. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Risk factors associated with body mass index increase in men at 28 years follow-up

L. Lund Haheim1,, P.G. Lund Larsen2, A.J. Sogaard2 and I. Holme3

From the 1Norwegian Knowledge Centre for the Health Services, Oslo,2The Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo and3Centre for Preventive Medicine, Ullevål University Hospital, Oslo, Norway

Address correspondence to Dr L. Lund Haheim, Norwegian Knowledge Centre for the Health Services, PO Box 7004, St. Olavs Plass, N–0130, Oslo, Norway. email: lise.lund.haheim{at}kunnskapssenteret.no

Received 6 February 2006 and in revised form 28 June 2006

Background: Several studies have reported a general increase in body mass index (BMI).

Aim: To identify factors influencing BMI changes at 28 years follow-up.

Design: Prospective screening study.

Methods: The cohort of the Oslo I study of 1972/73 had another screening in 2000 (Oslo II). We present data for these men, and men from Oslo I who participated in five similar studies during 1996–2001. In all, 7157 men aged 20–49 years at first screening attended two health screenings, and complete data were available for 7104. BMI change from 1972/73 to 2000 was the dependent variable in multiple regression analyses.

Results: The percentage with obesity (BMI >=30) increased overall from 2.5% to 13.5%. The overall mean (SD) BMI increased from 24.2 (2.6) kg/m2 to 26.2 (3.4) kg/m2. The increase was largest (3.9 (2.5) kg/m2) among men aged 20–24 in 1972/73 and least (1.6 (2.5) kg/m2) in those aged 45–49 years. No age trend was observed for those with BMI >=30.0 kg/m2 in 1972/3. On multiple regression analysis, increasing triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, age and non-fasting glucose, decreasing physical activity and not smoking were all significantly related to increasing BMI. Having stopped smoking was also related to increased BMI. Daily smoking in both 1972/73 and 2000, and daily smoking in 2000 but not in 1972/73, were inversely related to increased BMI.

Discussion: There was a substantial increase in BMI, with the largest increase in the younger men, except in those who were already obese at first screening. Overall, obesity increased by 11% in the study period and was associated with multiple life-style factors.


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